Where is the US Dollar going?
June 15, 2020, we received a "TNT" bar. This is a very critical bar with you are dealing with volatility. It is a timing element that indicates that a trend may start. With the down pointing arrow indicated that the probabilities are towards the bearish side. However, the orange color indicates caution. Therefore, you needed to see a break below the low of the TNT bar. July 6, 96.41 support was broken to start a bearish trend. The target was the blue crosses, T1, 91.94.
August 31, 2020, we reached the target. Any positions were exited and we had to wait to see if it would break the support to continue to move down. The resistance was 93.23. Instead of breaking the support, price broke the resistance and the pull back begin.
The "magic" question is "Was the bottom?" or "Is it a profit pull back"? We do not know this until the bullish setup is created.
Sept 28, the bullish setup occurred with the formation of a purple bar. The setup did NOT have a green shade which indicated it had a low probability. Furthermore, we got a gray rr value which indicated that the bullish setup was not really real. With the fake bullish setup, a resistance of 94.58 got established.
As long as price remained below 94.58, the probability for price to come back to 91.94 was high.
Throughout all of October and now going into November, price is slowly reaching the critical support. Once price get to the support, everything will be evaluated. Will it break it to continue the bearish trend? Will it hold to form a double bottom and possible indicate the bottom for the US bearish sentiment?
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