Ichimoku Technical Analysis : Where we stand with everything before Fed Announcement?

Ichimoku Technical Analysis : Where we stand with everything before Fed Announcement?  We are at that time AGAIN where the Fed is going to make a decision on increasing the interest rates or not.    All media and traders are focused on this big decision day.    Markets are reacting to this and anxiously waiting.    The “bets are on the table”.

Let’s look at the charts and see what is going on with the various instruments that can be affected today.     We will focus on the higher time frames i.e.. Daily, Weekly, and/or Monthly in order to get a long term view.    Note:  All charts are provided by Thinkorswim from TDAmeritrade.

Below is the monthly chart for the 30 Year US Treasury Bond futures $US or $ZB.   The chart is in a long term bullish trend and the major support holding this trend is 164’11.

2016-09-21_103754_30year

Below is the daily chart of the $VIX, the Volatility Index.   The $VIX has an inverse relationship with the stock market and we have been using the Support/Resistance levels to forecast the market.     Right now, the $VIX has been ranging from 11.95 to 20.57.     The middle of the range is 15.92 which is acting as a major resistance now.

The daily chart is showing that price is trying to head to the support which would mean the US Stock markets will go up.     Please note, since price is in the cloud, it is indicating that there will be a lot of volatility on its journey to the support.

2016-09-21_104334_vix

Below is the monthly chart of the $DX Dollar Futures.    It shows that the Dollar is a long term bullish consolation pattern between 96.296 and 93.117.    The probabilities are still towards the bullish side right now but the resistance needs to be broken otherwise price will continue to consolidate.

2016-09-21_104756_dx

Below is the weekly chart for Gold futures.     Notice, it resembles close to the weekly chart of the Dollar futures.   Gold futures in a bullish consolidation pattern between 1314.70 and 1341.60 with probabilities to the bullish side.   Until the resistance at 1341.60 price can continue to consolidate.

2016-09-21_105115_gold

Below is the weekly chart for the $ES Emini Sp500 futures.    It also is in a bullish consolidation pattern between 2115.50 and 2145.75 with the probabilities to the bullish side.   Until the resistance is broken, price will continue to consolidate.

2016-09-21_105334_es

Below is the monthly chart of $CL Crude Oil.   It is in a bearish consolidation pattern between 50.20 and 39.01 with the probabilities towards to the bearish side.

2016-09-21_105625_cl

I don’t have a “crystal ball” on what the Fed will do today but right now the actions people are taking with their money i.e. price action on the chart is indicating that the markets will remain bullish long term.

 

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About the Author Manesh Patel