Ichimoku : Is the Dollar Bullish or Bearish Long Term?

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Ichimoku : Is the Dollar Bullish or Bearish Long Term?  Every day, this is the question I get asked over and over.       First, I have no opinion.    I only trade what I see.    The last time I had an opinion about an instrument was in 2000 when I lost everything during the “Internet Bubble Bust”.     Since that day, my goal has been to trade probabilities.     The only way that can happen is to trade without emotions i.e. opinions.

Let’s look at the chart and see what is going on.     Since we want a long term view, we are going to focus on the weekly time frame.    Below is the weekly chart provided by Thinkorswim from TD Ameritrade.


The weekly chart on April 25 week, changed sentiments to be bearish for the first time since Aug 18, 2014.      From the bullish trend from Aug 2014 to March 2015, the market has been consolidating with a bullish sentiment between 93.02 and 99.64.

The key thing to note is that the sentiment changed to be bearish temporarily on the last retest of the bottom of the consolidation pattern.   This is not good for the long term bullish traders.    Right now, we are going through a bullish pull back.   There is high probability of reaching the major resistance at 96.248 since this is a multiple time frame resistance.   Why is a multiple time frame resistance?  Below is the monthly chart:


The weekly resistance is matching the monthly chart.   The supports are vary so there is no multiple time frame support right now but there is a multiple time frame resistance.     Based on this chart, it can been seen that if we break the support at 93.02 then the next major support will be 89.58.   If we break the resistance at 96.248 then we will have a high probability of retesting the high.

Until the support or resistance is broken, we are ranging with the lower time frames indicating that we have a high probability of reaching the resistance of 96.248 by July 11, 2016.


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