May 2017 Seasonals

The Emini S&P 500 Futures have been up in 7 out of the last 10 years with a total gain of about 39.5pts for the month of May.  Currently we are in a 4 year bullish streak with an average gain of 32.5pts per year.  So can we really expect the markets to go bullish?  Well we are now flirting around the all time high level of 2401 and would need to decisively break that level in order to continue the bullish trend through the dreaded summer months.  The average gain for the month of May over the last 10 years is only 3.95pts, so that’s not really indicating that we will have a big month.  Out of the top 25 seasonal trades from our proprietary software, only 8 were bullish for this month  and for the next two months we only have 7 high probability bullish trades out of the top 25 seasonals.   

(DPS) Dr Pepper Snapple Group has gone down about 8% since earnings and is approaching the weekly and monthly support of $90.26.   This level needs to hold if this stock is to turn bullish during the seasonal timeframe.  Since this is a short term trade we wouldn’t just take it at the weekly/monthly level and would ideally wait for confirmation on the lowers.

(AVGO) Broadcom is approaching its all time high of $227.75 and should most likely break past that level if the seasonal holds true.  $222.06 is the first multiple time frame support that we could potentially use for entry.  If that level doesn’t hold there is another support around $216.49.  

(TRIP) Tripadvisor is trending bearish on the weekly/monthly, however there could be some opportunities to play it bullish based on the lower time frames which are moving up to the resistance at $47.02.  If that level is broken we could see a bullish breakout on the daily.  $43.25 is the support that needs to hold if this trade is to go bullish.

(KIM) Kimco Realty is trending bearish on the daily/weekly.  Price has bounced off of the monthly support and is headed to the resistance at $21.57, which needs to hold if the seasonal is to follow through.   If that level holds we could potentially see price retest the pivot low around $20.20.

(CHFJPY) The Swiss France/Japanese Yen needs to hold around the 113.20 resistance level for the bearish seasonal to workout.  If that level is breached, we could see  price get to 115.39 and then on to 118.22.

As always, use your own technical/fundamental analysis to backup the seasonals.  The seasonals should just give you that extra bit of confidence if there is a chart setup.  Taking seasonals without technical/fundamental analysis is not recommended.

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