Futures Update: Month-ending January 31, 2016

Over the past year, we have encouraged traders to diversify their portfolios and this is one thing we will continue to do. During our October 2015 newsletter, we put a special emphasis on trading Futures products and took a detailed look at the major products in this category from Equity Indexes, Energy, Metals and more. We will continue to track these on a month-to-month basis and provide our views.

The purpose of this particular research article is to outline the long-term and short-term outlook on some of the most actively traded Futures contracts. This research was conducted using purely technical analysis. The analysis looked at the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily time frames. The monthly time frame provides a 2 to 5 year projection; the weekly time frame provides a 6 month to 2 year projection; the daily time frame provides a 1 to 6 month projection.

The following table provides a summary of various Futures contracts:

Summary Table

 

Interest Rates

30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond. The Monthly is above the cloud and bullish in the long-term, targeting the high of 166’21. The Weekly is also bullish and will remain this way as long as we hold the support at 156’19. The Daily sentiment is bullish, will a short-term target of 163’12. The short-term sentiment will remain bullish as long as the major support at 157’05 is maintained.

ZB - Mo

ZB - Wk

ZB - D

 

10-Year U.S. Treasury Note

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note. The month of January has closed at 129’200, changing the long-term sentiment of this instrument from neutral to bullish. The Weekly sentiment is bullish, and will remain this way as long as we hold the support at 127’205. In order to continue the long-term bullish trend, however, the resistance at  131’105 needs to be broken. The Daily sentiment is also bullish, with a short-term target of 130’085.

ZN - Mo

ZN - Wk

ZN - D

 

Equity Index

E-mini S&P 500

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the E-mini S&P 500. The Month of January has been extremely volatile to a point where the long-term sentiment of this instrument has come into question. We closed below a major support at 1933 for the first time since October 2011, but with our closing price being 1931.25, we are too close to that level to state that we can undergo a major pullback – over the next month we will be getting a clearer picture. The Weekly is bearish, with key resistances at 1957 and 1973. In order for the long-term bearish trend we need to first break below the key level of 1874. The Daily sentiment is bearish with a short-term resistance at 1939 and a support at 1913.

ES - Mo

ES - Wk

ES - D

 

E-mini Nasdaq 100

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the E-mini Nasdaq 100. Though the US markets have been extremely volatile in January, we continue to state that the Nasdaq is the strongest of the three we are analysing. The Monthly remains bullish, but the Weekly sentiment is neutral as we closed in the cloud. The Weekly is at an interesting  point where we have resistances at 4323 and 4360, and supports at 4185 and 4119. The Daily sentiment is bearish with a short-term resistance at 4340 and support at 4185.

NQ - Mo

NQ -Wk

NQ - D

 

E-mini Dow

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the E-mini Dow. The Monthly has closed below its major support of 16805 and there is now a high probability of a major pullback. The Weekly sentiment is bearish with a major resistance at 16596 and a key support at 15964. The Daily sentiment is bearish with a short-term resistance at 16513 and support at 16135.

YM - Mo

YM - Wk

YM - D

 

Currency Index

US Dollar 

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the US Dollar. The Monthly sentiment remains bullish with resistance levels at 100.64 and 102.425. The Weekly sentiment is bullish with a target at the 5-year high of 100.785. The long-term sentiment will remain bullish as long as the support at 96.56 is maintained. The Daily also has a bullish sentiment but needs to break the resistance at 99.67 to continue its upward move. The short-term sentiment will remain bullish as long as the support at 99.893 is maintained.

DX - Mo

DX - Wk

DX - D

 

CDN Dollar

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the Canadian Dollar. The Monthly and Weekly both have a bearish sentiment with the first major resistance at 0.73. In order to continue the long-term bearish trend, we need to remain below 0.7166. The Daily sentiment is bullish with a short-term resistance at 0.7184. In order for the short-term sentiment to also become bearish, we need to break the support at 0.7025.

6C - Mo

6C - Wk

6C - D

 

Metals

Gold

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the Gold Futures. The Monthly has a bearish sentiment with a probability of getting to 997.8 in the long-term as long as we continue to hold the key resistance at 1138.7. The Weekly has a bearish sentiment, but it is currently sitting right at a major resistance of 1118.6. In order for the long-term bearish trend to resume we need to get below 1079. The Daily is in the cloud, therefore, the sentiment is considered neutral. Price is right at the multiple time-frame resistance of 1118.6 – in order for the short-term sentiment to become bearish we need to first break the major support at 1092.6 and then target the multiple time-frame support at 1079.

GC - Mo

GC - Wk

GC - D

 

Silver

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the Silver Futures. The Monthly has a bearish sentiment with supports at 14.035 and 13.895 – the first resistance will be encountered at 15.697. The Weekly also has a bearish sentiment but needs to get below the 14.13 level in order for the long-term bearish trend to resume – the major resistance on the Weekly is at 14.995. The Daily is in the cloud, therefore, the sentiment is currently neutral. In order for the short-term bearish trend to resume the support at 14.158 must be broken.

SI - Mo

SI - Wk

SI - D

 

Copper

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the Copper Futures. The Monthly and Weekly both have a bearish sentiment – in order for the bearish trend to resume, however, the support at 2.042 must be broken. The Daily sentiment is currently bullish with a major resistance at 2.1087 – in order for the short-term bearish trend to resume, the multiple time-frame support at 2.042 must be broken.

HG - Mo

HG - Wk

HG - D

 

Energy

Crude Oil (WTI)

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the Light Sweet Crude Oil. The Monthly and Weekly sentiment continues to be bearish with more potential downside. The long-term supports are at 28.56 and 25.65 with the next major resistance at 39.24. The Daily has changed to bullish over this past week, however, the short-term bullish target is 35.51. In order for the short-term bearish trend to resume, the support at 32.98 must be broken.

CL - Mo

CL - Wk

CL - D

 

Natural Gas

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of Natural Gas Futures.The Monthly and Weekly sentiment remain bearish, however, we are right at a major Weekly support of 2.309. In order for the long-term bearish trend to continue we need to get below the support at 2.09. The Daily sentiment is bullish with short-term targets at 2.334 and 2.371. In order for this instrument to not be bullish any more we need to first break the support at 2.179.

NG - Mo

NG - Wk

NG - D

 

Heating Oil

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the Heating Oil Futures. The Monthly and Weekly sentiment continues to be bearish with a major long-term resistance at 1.2768. The Daily sentiment has recently switched from being bearish to bullish, however, the current bullish target is 1.117. In order for the short-term bearish trend to resume, we need to break the support at 1.015.

HO - Mo

HO - Wk

HO - D

 

Agriculture

Wheat

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of Wheat.The Monthly and Weekly sentiment continues to be bearish, however, we need to get below the support at 477.88 in order to resume the long-term trend. The Daily sentiment is barely bullish, and in order for the short-term sentiment to also become bearish we need to get below the support at 472.25. The major short-term resistance is at 493.

ZW - Mo

ZW - Wk

ZW - D

 

Corn

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of Corn Futures. The Monthly and Weekly sentiment remains bearish, however, in order to resume the long-term bearish trend we need to get below the support at 365.25. The next major long-term resistance is at 375.25. The Daily price is in the cloud, therefore the sentiment is neutral. In order for the short-term bearish trend to resume we need to get below the support at 361.50.

ZC - Mo

ZC - Wk

ZC - D

 

Sugar

Below are the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the Sugar Futures. The Monthly sentiment is bearish and the Weekly sentiment is neutral, however, in order for the long-term bearish trend to continue, the major support at 12.99 needs to be broken. The Daily sentiment is bearish with the same multiple time-frame support of 12.99 that needs to be broken for the short-term trend to continue.

SB - Mo

SB - Wk

SB - D

 

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About the Author Maneshkumar Patel