Ichimoku/Volatilty: VIX, 6-27-07: Trade Analysis

We have had 5 straight down days in the SPX. We have moved from 1533 to 1492 in 5 days!  Today, we reached exactly our S1 target.
Let’s look at the VIX which is good indicator of the markets. Sometimes it does get “skewed” to a point you can’t use it but in general, it is a good indicator for the market.
Below is the VIX chart in Harmonic Analyzer. Notice, we are in a crowd of Fib values. In fact, we reached one exactly today. Therefore, the VIX should be close to reaching a top. All the possible reverse Fib values are shown.vix_6_27_ha.jpg
Let’s look at the charts now. They are shown below. We have made a higher high VIX from the 6/7 value. Notice, the Oscillator is higher then the Oscillator on 6/7. This means there is a stronger bullish momentum for the VIX (bearish for the market). The Stoch. indicator is also exactly like 6/7 which is interesting. Also, notice the VIX at the end of the month typically goes up and then goes down the last day of the month or the first couple of days of the next month. This means CASH is entering the market around the first of the month.
vix_6_27_07_d_.png
Let’s look at the VIX last year. If you notice the thursday before the month end, the VIX went down drastically due to the market going up drastically. This thursday, the same possibility can exist since the FOMC meeting is this Thursday. vix_6_27_07_old_.png
Overall, there seems to be some more bearish action that can take place. In fact, I got into a bullish position for the SPY today. I will be adding to that position when the VIX reaches 19.29. The market does not like it when the VIX is 20 or above. Whenever, we go over 20, the market corrects to bring it back to 12-15. Traders want to buy options CHEAP!.
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About the Author Manesh Patel