Take Control of your ‘Future’

For many of us, trading is a tool to reach the elusive goal of financial freedom; however, most are only ever chasing it with little to no success. It is clear that the average retail trader knows not much more than to invest in stocks, however there is an abundance of options available. One such option is to trade a derivative product such as a Futures contract.  By incorporating Futures into your portfolio, you will diversify your exposure and take a step closer to achieving your goals.

The purpose of this particular research article is to outline the long-term and short-term outlook on some of the most actively traded futures contracts. The research was conducted using purely technical analysis. The analysis looked at the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily time frames. The monthly time frame provides a 2 to 5 year projection; the weekly time frame provides a 6 month to 2 year projection; the daily time frame provides a 1 to 6 month projection.

The following table provides a summary of various Futures contracts:

Summary Table

Below is the complete research behind the individual Futures contracts. Please note, all charts are from thinkorswim.

Interest Rates

30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond

Below is the monthly chart for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Futures. This instrument is strong bullish, with a high probability of retesting the pivot high at 166’21 in the long-term as long as it holds the support at 151’06.

ZB - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart. The sentiment remains bullish, however, in order to continue its bullish trend it needs to break the resistance at 157. The weekly support is at 151’01.

ZB - Wk

Below is the daily chart. The price is currently in the cloud therefore the sentiment is neutral. In order for it to continue bullish, the resistance at 156’21 needs to be broken. In order for it to be bearish in the short-term it needs to break the support at 153’26.

ZB - D

In summary, the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Futures are bullish in the long-term, however, it needs to get above the resistance at 157 in order to resume the bullish trend. In the short-term, price needs to get above 156’21 or below 153’26 to declare its direction.

 

10-Year U.S. Treasury Note

Below is the monthly chart for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures. The sentiment of this instrument is neutral and has been this way since it closed in the cloud in February 2015. In order to get a better understanding of future trajectory, we need to go down to the weekly time frame.

ZN - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart. The sentiment remains neutral on this time frame as well. The major resistance is 128’115 and the major support is at 127’075.

ZN - Wk

Below is the daily chart. The sentiment on the daily time frame is bullish, however, price is sitting right at the resistance of 127’295. In order to go bullish we need to break multiple resistances on the way to first retesting the previous pivot high, after which we can look for a bullish scenario.

ZN - D

In summary, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures currently has no high probability scenario. In order to go bullish in the short-term we need to break the resistance at 127’295 and in order to go bullish in the long-term we need to break the resistance at 128’270.

 

Equity Index

E-mini S&P 500

Below is the monthly chart for the E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures. The sentiment has been bullish since October 2011, however, in order to resume the long-term bullish trend we need to break the resistance at 1982.5. On the other hand, in order for a major pullback to occur, we need to break below the support at 1874.

ES - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart. We closed below the cloud for a third week in a row which established a bearish sentiment with the next support at 1910. In order for it to resume the long-term bullish trend it needs to get above the multiple time frame resistance at 1982.5.

ES - Wk

Below is the daily chart. It shows that we are currently bearish in the short-term as long as we hold the resistance at 1967.50. The short-term bearish targets are 1910 and 1874.

ES - D

In summary, the E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures are at a critical juncture where the monthly is trying to stay bullish, however, the weekly time frame has established its bearish sentiment and the daily is bearish till 1910. In order for the long-term bullish trend to continue, the resistance at 1982.5 needs to be broken. The borderline condition for this instrument to be bullish or bearish is the support at 1874. If we can break that support, there is a possibility of a major pullback in the long-term.

 

E-mini Nasdaq 100

Below is the monthly chart for the E-mini Nasdaq 100 Index Futures.  The sentiment has been bullish since we closed above the cloud in September 2010. In order to continue the bullish trend, we need to stay above 4297 by the end of this month.  The major support is at 3876.

NQ - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart. We are currently bullish, however, over the last four weeks we have been ‘flirting’ with the multiple time frame level of 4297 which determines if this instrument will continue to be bullish in the long-term.

NQ - Wk

Below is the daily chart. Though the sentiment is bearish, we will remain bullish as long as we stay above the critical level of 4297.

NQ - D

In summary, the E-mini Nasdaq 100 Index Futures are bullish in both the long-term and short-term as long as we stay above the critical level of 4297.

 

E-mini Dow

Below is the monthly chart for the E-mini Dow Futures. The sentiment is bullish and has remained bullish since we closed above the cloud in December 2010. In August 2015 we closed below the green line support which has changed our long-term outlook on this instrument. The key is to see where price closes at the end of the month. If it can get back above the red line, we can maintain a bullish outlook, whereas if it stays below the green line, we are looking for a major pullback.

YM - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart. We have established a bearish sentiment and have regularly held the resistance at 16680. The next major support is at 15964.

YM - Wk

Below is the daily chart. We closed below the level at 16410 on September 18 which means we are officially bearish in the short-term. Our short-term bearish target is 16069.

YM - D

In summary, the E-mini Dow is bearish in the long-term as long as it stays below the 16491 level. It is key to keep an eye on where price closes at the end of this month to see if anything changes.  Our borderline condition between this instrument being bullish and bearish lies at 16810.

 

Currency Index

US Dollar Index

Below is the monthly chart for the US Dollar Index Futures. The sentiment has remained bullish since we closed above the cloud in July 2014. Over the last six months, we have been experiencing a consolidation as we approach a major resistance at 100.64. We will maintain our long-term bullish outlook as long as we stay above the support at 92.825.

DX - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart.  The sentiment remains bullish, however, we need to get above the resistance at 96.65 in order to resume the bullish trend. If price makes its way into the cloud over the next couple weeks, our outlook will change.

DX - Wk

Below is the daily chart. The sentiment is bearish, however, price is in the middle of a consolidation pattern. Price needs to get below the support at 94.813 in order for us to look for a short-term move to the bottom of the consolidation range which is at 93.672.

DX - D

In summary, the US Dollar Index Futures remain bullish in the long-term but need to get above 96.65 in order for the bullish trend to resume. In the short-term we can retest the bottom of the consolidation range if we get below the  94.813 level.

 

Metals

Gold

Below is the monthly chart for the Gold Futures. The sentiment has been bearish since August 2014. The chart shows the long-term outlook on Gold continues to be bearish and it will stay that way as long as the resistance at 1190.1 is maintained.

GC - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart.  Gold closed between a support and resistance this past week, however, it still has a bearish sentiment. For it to continue its long-term bearish trend, it must get below the support at 1121.1.

GC - Wk

Below is the daily chart. Gold is currently sitting at a major resistance of 1139, with many minor resistances on its way up. In order for the bearish trend to continue, we need to get below the support at 1115.

GC - D

In summary, the long-term outlook on Gold Futures is bearish, however, we cannot continue the bearish trend until we break the multiple time frame support at 1121.1.

 

Silver

Below is the monthly chart for the Silver Futures. This chart shows that we are trending bearish and the sentiment has been bearish since May 2013. In order for us to stay bearish, we need to maintain the resistance at 16.20. For the bearish trend to continue further, Silver needs to get below the 14.92 support level.

SI - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart. Silver closed between a support and resistance this past week, however, the sentiment is bearish. In order for the bearish trend to continue we need to get below the support at 14.90.

SI - Wk

Below is the daily chart. The sentiment is neutral, Until we close on either side of the cloud the sentiment will be neutral. In order for us to continue bearish, the support at 14.8 needs to be broken.

SI - D

In summary, the long-term outlook on the Silver Futures is bearish; however, we cannot resume the bearish trend until we break the support at 14.81.

 

Copper

Below is the monthly chart for Copper Futures. The sentiment is bearish and we are looking to get below the 2.35 level to continue the long-term bearish trend.

HG - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart.  The sentiment is bearish and we can continue to bearish trend bearish as long as we break the support at 2.36.

HG - Wk

Below is the daily chart. The sentiment is bullish for us to get to 2.51 as long as we hold the support at 2.35.

HG - D

In summary, the Copper Futures are bearish in the long-term, however, the bearish trend can only continue once we get below the multiple time frame support at 2.35.

 

Energy

Crude Oil (WTI)

Below is the monthly chart for the Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures. We are in a bearish trend with targets at 43.96 and 36.40.

CL - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart. We are in a long-term bearish trend and will remain in one as long as we hold the resistance at 50.17.

CL - Wk

Below is the daily chart. In the short-term we are in a bearish trend to get to the 49.66 level. The bearish trend will continue only once we get below the short-term support at 43.56.

CL - D

In summary, the Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures are in a bearish trend as long as the resistance at 50.17 is held. In the short-term, we have a high probability of testing the resistance at 49.66, after which wemust get below the support at 43.56 in order to continue the bearish trend.

 

Natural Gas

Below is the monthly chart for the Natural Gas Futures. The sentiment is bearish and we can enter a bearish trend below 2.616.

NG - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart. The sentiment is bearish and we will remain bearish as long as we hold the resistance at 2.774

NG - Wk

Below is the daily chart. The daily time frame has been in the middle of a consolidation pattern, however, price is now at the bottom of that range and can start trending bearish as long as it holds the 2.68 level.

NG - D

In summary, the Natural Gas Futures have been consolidating for the entire year, however, it can now resume its bearish trend as long as it maintains the resistance at 2.68.

 

Heating Oil

Below is the monthly chart for the Heating Oil Futures. The instrument is bearish in the long-term and will continue downward as long as the resistance at 1.8091 is held.

HO - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart. We will continue the bearish trend as long as we hold the weekly resistance at 1.5397.

HO - Wk

Below is the daily chart. Price will resume its bearish trend as long as the short-term resistance at 1.5397 is held.

HO - D

In summary, the Heating Oil Futures are bearish in both the long-term and short-term with our short-term target being 1.4743. The long-term bearish trend will continue as long as we hold the resistance at 1.7159.

 

Agriculture

Wheat

Below is the monthly chart for the Wheat Futures. The sentiment and trend are both bearish with a long-term target of 437.7.

ZW - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart. Price can continue bearish as long as it holds the resistance at 499.13.

ZW - Wk

Below is the daily chart. Price is bearish and can continue downwards as long as it holds the resistance at 489.50

ZW - D

In summary, the Wheat Futures are bearish in the long-term as long as the resistance at 499 is held.

 

Corn

Below is the monthly chart for the Corn Futures. The price has been consolidating and can resume its bearish trend when it gets below 367.

ZC - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart. The sentiment is neutral at this time and we will need to get below 367 in order to resume the bearish trend.

ZC - Wk

Below is the daily chart. Price is short-term bearish as long as it stays below the resistance level of 379.

ZC - D

In summary, the Corn Futures are short-term bearish and can resume its long-term bearish trend once it breaks the support at 367.

 

Sugar

Below is the monthly chart for the Sugar Futures. We are currently at 11.00 which is very close to the all-time low of 10.13. The monthly chart does not have much information so we will gain further information on the weekly time frame.

SB - Monthly

Below is the weekly chart. This instrument is bearish can continue its bearish trend in the long-term as long as it holds the resistance at 11.87.

SB - Wk

Below is the daily chart. We are bearish in the short-term, however, in order to continue the bearish trend we need to get below the support at 10.94.

SB - D

In summary, the Sugar Futures are bearish in the long-term as long as the resistance at 11.87 is held. In the short-term, price needs to get below 10.94 to continue bearish.

 

EDUCATIONAL USE: Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and Options Trading has large potential rewards, but also has large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provided on the Blog is for educational purpose.

About the Author Maneshkumar Patel