USDJPY – 6/3/2010


USDJPY…..First let’s look at the fundamental underlying story here.  Japans prime minisiter Mr. Hatoyama resigns.  The 4th PM to resign in Japan in 4 years.  Who is the likely replacement?  The current Finance minister Naoto Kan.  A strong advocate of a weaker Yen to the USD.  In addition with the political turmoil the Yen can no longer be counted on as a safe haven currency.  Add its own Debt to GDP ratio and there is not much reason to own Yen unless you want to take advantage of carry trade liquidation.  If there still is that left.  But lets not let all that get us in the trade.  First lets look at a 120 min.  First you can buy here at 92.08.  Or wait patiently for a test of the Tenkan San or Kijun Sen.  Looks like 91.92 which is 16 pips away and 91.44.  I would like to see hold 91.60 and make our way up to and above 93 where I will most likely sell half.  As far as my stop goes I think as long as we hold the cloud we should be ok.
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About the Author David Terk