Ichimoku Market Update on Election day. What is happening? The big day is finally here. Depending on who wins, the market change drastically short term and long term. Let’s see what is going on with all the markets now.
Please note: all charts are proved by Thinkorswim from TDAmeritrade
We will start with the $ES Emini SP500 since it is the most liquid future product representing the US Stock market and almost trades 24 hours.
Below is the monthly chart of the $ES. Since Dec 2010, the sentiment changed to Bullish, the market has started a major bullish trend with no major pull back yet. The major support controlling the trend right now is 1997.
Below is the weekly chart for the $ES. The weekly chart is an “ugly” chart that has been consolidating with volatility. The last trend was bullish and the support controlling it is 2086.50 which held last week. The major resistance is 2151.50.
Below is the daily chart for the $ES. Since Oct 11, the daily has been defining it’s consolidation pattern. The support is 2086.50 and the major resistance is 2145.50. The daily resistance is a little below the weekly resistance but the Daily/Weekly supports are the same..
In conclusion, the higher time frames are controlling the $ES for a bullish trend. The lower time frames tried to take the market lower but they couldn’t break the support at 2086.50.
Let’s look at the Russell futures now. Russell future has been lagging behind all the other markets.
Below is the monthly chart of $TF. The long term chart is in a bullish trend that went through a weak major pull back and now is retesting the high. The major support controlling the bullish trend is 1114. Since the major pull back was weak, it still has a high probability of breaking the high long term.
Below is the weekly chart. It has a bullish trend controlled by the support at 1170.20 with the same resistance as the monthly time frame.
Below is the daily time frame. The trend is a bearish trend controlled by the resistance at 1202.50.
In conclusion, the $TF Weekly and monthly are bullish but the daily is bearish. In order for the higher time frame to continue the bullish trend, the resistance at 1202.50 has to be broken. If this resistance holds, price will move towards back to the weekly support of 1170.20.
Let’s examine $GC Gold futures. Below is the monthly chart. The sentiment is bearish and it started a small bearish trend but now it is trying to go through a major pull back. The major pull back still has not been completed because price is now consolidating. The major support controlling the bullish major pull back is 1211.80. The resistance for the a weak major pull back will be the bottom of the cloud.
Below is the weekly chart for $GC. The chart was in a bullihs trend but the support at 1289.40 was broken couple of weeks ago. Price is now consolidating because the weekly is trying to go bullish and the daily is trying to go bearish. The resistance at 1289.40 is going to be key for everything. If price holds there then the daily can force price to get back to 1211.80. If the resistance breaks then the next resistance is 1342.90.
Below is the daily time frame. The sentiment is bearish and price is very volatile right now due to elections. The key will be where we close today. The probabilities are still towards bearish but due to volatility, anything can happen.
In conclusion, $GC Gold futures are around a major resistance of 1289.40. Where we close will dedicate the direction of Gold. If we break it, price will have a high probability of getting to 1342.90. The it holds, price will have a high probability of getting to 1211.80.
Let’s examine $ZB, 30 year US Treasury Bond futures. Below is the monthly chart: It is in a good bullish trend being held by the support at 162’31. Price is at this critical support. If this support breaks, price will continue to pull back to the Weekly supports.
Below is the weekly chart for $ZB. The trend is bullish but going through a major pull back. Price is at one key support at 162’31. The next major support for the major pull back will be 159’01.
The daily chart for $ZB is shown below. It is in a strong bearish trend.
In conclusion, the Daily time frame is controlling price right now and increasing the probability of price breaking the weekly support at 162’31 to get to the next support major support at 159’01. Since price is at the major resistance of 162’31 anything really can happen with the election.
Let’s look at the $DX Dollar futures now. Below is the monthly chart: The chart is in a bullish trend but is consolidating at the top now. If price goes down, a lot of trader’s are going to see a “head & shoulder” pattern. The key support is 95.465.
Below is the weekly chart. It is in a bullish trend with resistance at 98.931 and support at 96.237. The support is going to be very critical here. We tested the resistance and if we break the support, this will create a lower high which will not be good for a bullish trend.
Below is the daily chart. The daily chart is in an “ugly” bullish trend being held by 97.977.
In conclusion, the $DX dollar futures is at a critical stage. The weekly support/resistances are controlling everything now. If the resistance at 98.931 breaks then price will retest the high. If the support breaks at 96.237 then price will start to move towards the monthly support.
TOMORROW Morning, we will do a sector analysis.
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