The Emini S&P 500 Futures have been down in 8 out of the last 10 years with a total loss of about 240 pts for the month of June. The average loss per year over this time has been about 24 pts. Out of the top 30 seasonals from our proprietary software, we only had 1 that was bullish for this month. We also have the “sell in May and go away” crowd. It would seem like this month would be favorable to go bearish right? Well things aren’t exactly as clear cut as they seem. In the last five years the “sell in May and go away” has worked only once. The technical charts are showing strong bullish momentum on the swing/long term charts and price has broken out of the top of the range that has held since February. So while the seasonals indicate strong bearish, the technicals do not back it up.
(M) Macys has been on a bearish streak for nearly two years now and is showing no signs of turning bullish anytime soon. There is resistance around the $26.15 level on the daily/weekly that needs to hold if the seasonal is to follow through. This stock should retest and break the previous pivot low of $22.43
(TIF) Tiffany & CO. has broken through the swing time frame resistance around $89.31 and looks like it will just be consolidating. There is resistance around the $91 level so we will have to see if we get a setup around that level on the lowers.
(KSS) Kohl’s is breaking the resistance around $38.87 and will mostly likely consolidate around that level as it will be losing bearish momentum.
(CBS) CBS Corp. is slowly making its way down to the the weekly Ichimoku cloud. Price needs to stay below $61.67 for the seasonal to have a chance and if it does we could see price get into the $58 range.
(JEC) Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. needs to hold around the $53.24 level. It has already bounced off of this resistance before and needs to hold again if it is to go bearish. If it hold it could get to $48.95. If it does not hold price should get to $56.31.
(BAX) Baxter International Inc. has had a strong bullish run this year, up nearly 35% for the year. BAX is the only stock in our top 30 seasonals to have a bullish seasonal. Many of the time frames are over extended and with the big move that has already occurred this year, everyone should trade this one with caution.
As always, use your own technical/fundamental analysis to backup the seasonals. The seasonals should just give you that extra bit of confidence if there is a chart setup. Taking seasonals without technical/fundamental analysis is not recommended.
In the July newsletter we will post seasonals for the 3rd quarter along with the usual monthly seasonals.
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