Ichimoku Executive Summary of US Stock markets. We are almost half way through August and the markets are still at the high. The question everyone is asking is “Are we going to break the high” or go through a major pull back.
Let’s look at the technical charts and determine what they say.
All charts are provided by eSignal.
Below is the daily chart for the E-mini SP500. The chart is showing we are “slowly” going higher with no signs of a pull back. The major support is 2125.00 and resistance is 2207.25. Let’s examine the lower time frame to see what is going on.
Here is the monthly seasonal chart provided by www.alerttrades.com. It indicates there is no real high probability towards bullish or bearish this month. You have an predication of an average move of 5.1% with a draw down of 1.1%. The reward/risk is good but the probabilities aren’t.
Below is the 60m time frame. It shows that a mini consolidation pattern is occurring between 2175.75 and 2183.50. A iMTF™ support at 2178.50 has developed which is now critical for the bullish momentum. As long as this support holds, we will continue to go higher without a major pull back. With this iMTF™ support, there is now a high probability to get to the top of the consolidation pattern and break it too.
Below is the weekly time frame for the Nasdaq futures. It shows we broke the top of the consolidation pattern yesterday by closing above 4740.75. Today will be a critical week in that, price needs to continue to close above this support level as a confirmation. If the confirmation occurs, the next major resistance is 4975.75.
Here is the monthly seasonal chart provided by www.alerttrades.com. It shows almost the same as the E-MIni Sp500 futures.
Below is the 60m time frame. There is a small consolidation pattern between 4787.00 and 4807.75 with a major iMTF™ support at 4792.75. As long as the iMTF™ support hold, we have a high probability of reaching the top of the consolidation pattern and break it.
Below is the weekly chart for Russell Futures. We broke the resistance at 1720.50 and trying to the next major resistance at 1754.75.
Below is the 60m chart. The 60m shows it is also consolidating in a small consolidation pattern of 1227.00 and 1232.00 with a iMTF™ major support at 1229.75. As long as this major support hold, there is a high probability of reaching the top of the consolidation pattern and breaking it.
Now, we will discuss the $VIX which has an inverse relationship with the US Stock markets. Below is the weekly chart. It is an over sold condition because it is below the major support of 12.77. Note, things can remain in an over sold condition for awhile so it doesn’t mean we are are about to reverse at all.
If we examine history, there are two support below this level of 12.77. They are 11.15 (Aug 2015) and 10.34 (July 2014). We are the first minor support now. Let’s see what the lower time frames tell us.
Below is the 60m time frame. The support/resistances are random across time frame right now since there is no iMTF™. However, the sentiment is bearish since we are below the cloud and price has to go far up in order to go to a bullish sentiment.
In summary, we have iMTF™ supports on the E-mini Sp500, Nasdaq, and Russell futures on the 60m. These supports are giving us a high probability to reach the last high and breaking it.
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