The Emini S&P 500 Futures have been up in 6 out of the last 10 years with a total gain of 251.5 pts for the month of July. The average gain per month over this time has been about 25.15 pts. The third quarter has been bullish in 7 out of the last 10 years with a total gain of 41.25pt. The average gain per quarter over this time has been about 4.13 pts, which is just about as flat as it can get. The three bearish quarters averaged losses of about 153 pts per quarter. Out of the top 44 monthly and quarterly seasonals from our proprietary software, none were bearish. So what can we expect this month? Well the weekly and monthly charts are still strong bullish, but the daily is going through a pullback and we could see price get to the Ichimoku cloud. Price has not broken below the daily Ichimoku cloud since October 2016, so if that occurs we could see a test of the 2350/2370 levels.
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) has just been in a large consolidation cycle since 2014 and is now approaching the top of that consolidation. For the last 2 years (AMGN) has been in the middle of the consolidation pattern by the close of June and July has seen the stock shoot up to the top of the range. This year the stock is opening in July at the top of the range and if the seasonal holds true we could see a retest of the $184.21 level and a breakout above the range that has been holding for the last couple of years.
Kansas City Southern (KSU) is gaining bullish momentum and headed towards $111. The daily Ichimoku chart needs to hold the Tenkan Sen if the seasonal is to hold true for this month. This stock has already gone up over 30% from the low of the year so it could be due for a pullback.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) is setting up to retest the all time high if the seasonal average hold true. We could still see a major pullback before it continues upwards as the monthly chart still needs some time for things to align. In the end of June, price just broke an iMTF support on the lower time frames so in the short term we could see a bearish move to the daily cloud.
We also ran currencies in our proprietary software for the third quarter and our top 5 results had 1 currency in common, the Yen. EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and CHF/JPY all have a bearish seasonality for the this quarter, which means the Yen should get stronger. All of the above mentioned currencies with the exception of the USD/JPY have gone bearish in 8 out the last 10 years, the USD/JPY has gone bearish in 9 out the last 10 years for this quarter.
As always, use your own technical/fundamental analysis to backup the seasonals. The seasonals should just give you that extra bit of confidence if there is a chart setup. Taking seasonals without technical/fundamental analysis is not recommended.
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