Q1 Seasonal Trades from Alert Trades and Ichimoku

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Today we closed out April expiry Options for two stocks that had timed Seasonal patterns matched with Ichimoku levels for entry and exit on the Weekly timeframe.  The two stocks are GIS and DUK.

DUK – Duke Energy Corporation

DUK Quarter 1 Seasonal

January and February for Duke Energy were months with low Confidence indicating a lack of confirmed sentiment.  However, February was a month of high SIV indicating that 15.1% of the yearly movement in the stock typically occurs during this month. We therefor would predict that February be a period of high volatility consolidation.  This was in fact the case for 2016 as February’s price movement ranged 9.4% but closed nearly flat.  The true seasonal was to happen in March with high Confidence.

DUK 3-17-2016

DUK hit an Ichimoku Weekly support at 72.8 on March 1, 2016 providing a potential entry into the seasonal trade.  We have now exited the April Options due to price reaching a resistance, completing the predicted max profit movement of 4.8% for March, and to avoid Theta decay on the Options.  There remains a high probability that April will continue to bullish seasonal pattern.  We will be looking for a pullback now to continue the trade.

GIS – General Mills

GIS had high probability seasonal patterns for each month of Quarter 1 providing a full picture of the whole Quarter.  There were high probabilities for each month that; January = Bearish, February = Bullish, and March = Bullish.

GIS Quarter 1 Seasonal

According to the high Confidence patterns GIS was to go bearish in January and then have two months of high Confidence and high SIV bullish movement in February and March.

GIS 3-17-2016

The January Bearish move exceeded the predicted Max Profit value but reached an Ichimoku Weekly Support level of 53.65 on January 21, 2016.  This provided an entry for the following two months of predicted bullish movement.  Both February and March have followed their predicted percentage movements thus far.  We are now closing our April Options at the top of the predicted percentage max profit for March and to avoid Theta decay on the Options.