On September 21, 2015 we published an article titled, Take Control of your ‘Future‘. This is a follow up which incorporates the most recent developments in the world of Futures Trading.
Link to original article: https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/uncategorized/take-control-of-your-future-2/
The following table provides a summary of various Futures contracts:
Below is the complete research behind the individual Futures contracts. Please note, all charts are from thinkorswim.
Interest Rates
30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond
Below is the monthly chart for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Futures. This instrument is strong bullish, with a high probability of retesting the pivot high at 166’21 in the long-term as long as it holds the support at 151’06.
Below is the weekly chart. The sentiment remains bullish, however, in order to continue its bullish trend it needs to break the resistance at 160’24. The weekly support is at 151’01.
Below is the daily chart. The sentiment is now bullish, and in order for it to continue bullish, the resistance at 159’07 needs to be broken. The short-term support is 156’21.
In summary, the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Futures are bullish in the long-term, however, it needs to get above the resistance at 160’24 in order to resume the bullish trend. In the short-term, price needs to get above the resistance at 159’07.
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note
Below is the monthly chart for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures. The sentiment of this instrument is now bullish since we closed above the cloud in September. In order to get a better understanding of future trajectory, we need to go down to the weekly time frame.
Below is the weekly chart. The sentiment is bullish as we are now above the cloud. The major resistance is 129’295 and the major support is at 128’085.
Below is the daily chart. The sentiment on the daily time frame is bullish, however, price is sitting right at the support of 128’230. In order to remain bullish we need to maintain this support.
In summary, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures is bullish across all three time frames. In order to go bullish in the short-term we need to stay above the support at 128’230.
Equity Index
E-mini S&P 500
Below is the monthly chart for the E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures. The sentiment has been bullish since October 2011, however, in order to resume the long-term bullish trend we need to break the resistance at 1982.5. On the other hand, in order for a major pullback to occur, we need to break below the support at 1882.
Below is the weekly chart. We have closed below the cloud for five weeks in a row which established a bearish sentiment with the next support at 1910. In order for it to resume the long-term bullish trend it needs to get above the multiple time frame resistance at 1982.5.
Below is the daily chart. It shows that we are currently bearish in the short-term as long as we hold the resistance at 1978. The short-term bearish targets are 1936 and 1911.
In summary, the E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures are at a critical juncture where the monthly is trying to stay bullish, however, the weekly time frame has established its bearish sentiment and the daily is bearish till at least 1936. In order for the long-term bullish trend to continue, the resistance at 1982.5 needs to be broken. The borderline condition for this instrument to be bullish or bearish is the support at 1882. If we can break that support, there is a possibility of a major pullback in the long-term.
E-mini Nasdaq 100
Below is the monthly chart for the E-mini Nasdaq 100 Index Futures. The sentiment has been bullish since we closed above the cloud in September 2010. In order to continue the bullish trend, we need to get above 4297. The major support is at 4089.
Below is the weekly chart. We are currently bullish, however, over the last four weeks we have been ‘flirting’ with the multiple time frame level of 4297 which determines if this instrument will continue to be bullish in the long-term.
Below is the daily chart. We are currently sitting at a critical multiple time frame level of 4297.
In summary, the E-mini Nasdaq 100 Index Futures are bullish in both the long-term and short-term, however we need to get above the 4297 level to resume the bullish trend.
E-mini Dow
Below is the monthly chart for the E-mini Dow Futures. The sentiment is bullish and has remained bullish since we closed above the cloud in December 2010. In September 2015 we closed below the green line support which has changed our long-term outlook on this instrument. The key is to see where price closes at the end of the month. If it can get back above the red line, we can maintain a bullish outlook, whereas if it stays below the green line, we are looking for a major pullback to the cloud.
Below is the weekly chart. We have established a bearish sentiment and have regularly held the resistance at 16810. The next major support is at 15964.
Below is the daily chart. We are sitting at the resistance of 16697 which means we are officially bearish in the short-term. Our short-term bearish target is 16318.
In summary, the E-mini Dow is bearish in the long-term as long as it stays below the 16491 level. It is key to keep an eye on where price closes at the end of this month to see if anything changes. Our borderline condition between this instrument being bullish and bearish lies at 16810.
Currency Index
US Dollar Index
Below is the monthly chart for the US Dollar Index Futures. The sentiment has remained bullish since we closed above the cloud in July 2014. Over the last six months, we have been experiencing a consolidation as we approach a major resistance at 100.64. We will maintain our long-term bullish outlook as long as we stay above the support at 92.825.
Below is the weekly chart. The sentiment remains bullish, however, we need to get above the resistance at 96.395 in order to resume the bullish trend. If price makes its way into the cloud over the next couple weeks, our outlook may change.
Below is the daily chart. The sentiment is bullish, however, price is in the middle of a consolidation pattern. Price needs to get below the support at 94.813 in order for us to look for a short-term move to the bottom of the consolidation range which is at 93.672.
In summary, the US Dollar Index Futures remain bullish in the long-term but need to get above 96.395 in order for the bullish trend to resume. In the short-term we can retest the bottom or top of the consolidation range if we get below 94.813 or above 96.09.
Metals
Gold
Below is the monthly chart for the Gold Futures. The sentiment has been bearish since August 2014. The chart shows the long-term outlook on Gold continues to be bearish and it will stay that way as long as the resistance at 1190.1 is maintained.
Below is the weekly chart. Gold closed between a support and resistance this past week, however, it still has a bearish sentiment. For it to continue its long-term bearish trend, it must get below the support at 1121.1.
Below is the daily chart. Gold is currently sitting at a major resistance of 1139, with many minor resistances on its way up. In order for the bearish trend to continue, we need to get below the support at 1121.1.
In summary, the long-term outlook on Gold Futures is bearish, however, we cannot continue the bearish trend until we break the multiple time frame support at 1121.1.
Silver
Below is the monthly chart for the Silver Futures. This chart shows that we are trending bearish and the sentiment has been bearish since May 2013. In order for us to stay bearish, we need to maintain the resistance at 16.20. For the bearish trend to continue further, Silver needs to get below the 14.92 support level.
Below is the weekly chart. Silver closed between a support and resistance this past week, however, the sentiment is bearish. In order for the bearish trend to continue we need to get below the support at 14.81.
Below is the daily chart. The sentiment is bullish, however, there are many resistances on its way up. In order to continue the overall bearish trend, the support at 14.81 needs to be broken. In order to go bullish, we need to get above the 15.84 level.
In summary, the long-term outlook on the Silver Futures is bearish; however, we cannot resume the bearish trend until we break the support at 14.81.
Copper
Below is the monthly chart for Copper Futures. The sentiment is bearish and we are looking to get below the 2.35 level to continue the long-term bearish trend.
Below is the weekly chart. The sentiment is bearish and we can continue to trend bearish as long as we hold the resistance at 2.35.
Below is the daily chart. Since we are in the cloud, the sentiment is neutral, however, we can continue looking bearish once we get below the support at 2.30.
In summary, the Copper Futures are bearish in the long-term, however, the bearish trend can only continue once we get below the short-term support at 2.30.
Energy
Crude Oil (WTI)
Below is the monthly chart for the Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures. We are in a bearish trend with targets at 43.96 and 36.40.
Below is the weekly chart. We are in a long-term bearish trend and will remain in one as long as we hold the resistance at 50.17. In order to continue the bearish trend we need to get below 43.54.
Below is the daily chart. In the short-term we are in a bullish trend to get to the 49.66 level. The bearish trend will continue only once we get below the short-term support at 43.56.
In summary, the Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures are in a bearish trend as long as the resistance at 50.17 is held. In the short-term, we have a high probability of testing the resistance at 49.66, after which we must get below the support at 43.56 in order to continue the bearish trend.
Natural Gas
Below is the monthly chart for the Natural Gas Futures. The sentiment is bearish and we can enter a bearish trend below 2.616.
Below is the weekly chart. The sentiment is bearish and we will remain bearish as long as we hold the resistance at 2.774
Below is the daily chart. The daily time frame has been in the middle of a consolidation pattern, however, price is now at the bottom of that range and can start trending bearish as long as it holds the 2.68 level.
In summary, the Natural Gas Futures have been consolidating for the entire year, however, it can now resume its bearish trend as long as it maintains the resistance at 2.68.
Heating Oil
Below is the monthly chart for the Heating Oil Futures. The instrument is bearish in the long-term and will continue downward as long as the resistance at 1.8091 is held.
Below is the weekly chart. We will continue the bearish trend as long as we hold the weekly resistance at 1.5397.
Below is the daily chart. Price will resume its bearish trend as long as the short-term resistance at 1.5397 is held.
In summary, the Heating Oil Futures are bearish in both the long-term and short-term with our short-term target being 1.4743. The long-term bearish trend will continue as long as we hold the resistance at 1.7159.
Agriculture
Wheat
Below is the monthly chart for the Wheat Futures. The sentiment and trend are both bearish with a long-term target of 437.7.
Below is the weekly chart. Price can continue bearish as long as it holds the resistance at 499.13.
Below is the daily chart. Price is bearish and can continue downwards as long as it holds the resistance at 489.50
In summary, the Wheat Futures are bearish in the long-term as long as the resistance at 499 is held.
Corn
Below is the monthly chart for the Corn Futures. The price has been consolidating and can resume its bearish trend when it gets below 367.
Below is the weekly chart. The sentiment is neutral at this time and we will need to get below 367 in order to resume the bearish trend.
Below is the daily chart. Price is short-term bearish as long as it stays below the resistance level of 379.
In summary, the Corn Futures are short-term bearish and can resume its long-term bearish trend once it breaks the support at 367.
Sugar
Below is the monthly chart for the Sugar Futures. We are currently at 11.00 which is very close to the all-time low of 10.13. The monthly chart does not have much information so we will gain further information on the weekly time frame.
Below is the weekly chart. This instrument is bearish can continue its bearish trend in the long-term as long as it holds the resistance at 11.87.
Below is the daily chart. We are bearish in the short-term, however, in order to continue the bearish trend we need to get below the support at 10.94.
In summary, the Sugar Futures are bearish in the long-term as long as the resistance at 11.87 is held. In the short-term, price needs to get below 10.94 to continue bearish.
EDUCATIONAL USE: Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and Options Trading has large potential rewards, but also has large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provided on the Blog is for educational purpose.
