The purpose of this particular research article is to outline the long-term and short-term outlook on some of the most actively traded futures contracts. The research was conducted using purely technical analysis. The analysis looked at the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily time frames. The monthly time frame provides a 2 to 5 year projection; the weekly time frame provides a 6 month to 2 year projection; the daily time frame provides a 1 to 6 month projection.
The following table provides a summary of various Futures contracts:
Below is the complete research behind the individual Futures contracts. Please note, all charts are from thinkorswim.
Interest Rates
30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond. The monthly is bullish but will need to break the resistance at 157 to continue the long-term trend. The weekly is in the cloud so the sentiment is neutral; a break of 157 will allow for it to become bullish. The daily sentiment is bearish and will remain this way as long as the resistance at 156 is held. In order to start a short-term bearish trend it will have to break the support at 151’19.
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note. The monthly is in the cloud and therefore the sentiment is neutral. The weekly is bearish, however, it is consolidating so we need a break below the 125’045 in order to look for a long-term bearish move. The daily is bearish, but needs to get below the 126’055 to continue the short-term bearish move.
Equity Index
E-mini S&P 500
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the E-mini S&P 500. The monthly sentiment is bullish with a high probability of retesting the high at 2134. The weekly sentiment is bullish but needs to break the resistance at 2095.5 in order to retest the high. The daily sentiment is bullish as long as it maintains the support at 2054.5
E-mini Nasdaq 100
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the E-mini Nasdaq 100. The monthly chart has a bullish sentiment and is the current all-time high. The weekly sentiment is bullish and is near the current all-time high. The daily sentiment is bullish and will remain bullish as long as we hold the support at 4597.25.
E-mini Dow
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the E-mini Dow. The monthly sentiment is bullish and has a high probability to retesting the high of 18334; it will remain bullish long-term as long as we hold the support at 16810. The weekly sentiment is bullish as we are sitting just above the cloud. In order to continue bullish we need to get above the 17982 level. The daily sentiment is bullish and will remain bullish as long as we hold the support at 17479.
Currency Index
US Dollar
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the US Dollar. The monthly sentiment is bullish and will need to break the resistance at 100.885 to continue this long-term trend. The weekly sentiment is bullish with a high probability of retesting the high of 100.785. It will remain bullish as long as the support at 96.56 is held. The daily sentiment is bullish but will need to break above the resistance at 99.095 in order to continue the bullish move in the short-term.
Metals
Gold
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the Gold Futures. The monthly sentiment remains bearish. The weekly sentiment is bearish with a weekly low of 1045.4 being achieved last week. It will remain bearish as long as the resistance at 1125.6 is held. The daily sentiment remains bearish but in order to continue the bearish trend, the support at 1066.9 needs to be broken.
Silver
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the Silver Futures. The monthly chart remains bearish. The weekly sentiment is bearish and will remain so as long as the resistance at 15.118 is held. The daily sentiment is bearish, however the support at 14.09 needs to be broken in order to continue the short-term move.
Copper
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the Copper Futures. The monthly sentiment is bearish. The weekly sentiment remains bearish and will continue to be so as long as the resistance at 2.3413 is held. The daily sentiment is bearish with a high probability of retesting the low at 2.0015.
Energy
Crude Oil
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures. The monthly chart continues to be bearish with a support at 36.4. The weekly and daily has just established a low of 37.5. In order to stay bearish in the short-term the resistance at 42.93 needs to be held.
Natural Gas
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the Natural Gas Futures. The monthly sentiment is bearish. The weekly sentiment is bearish and will remain bearish in the long-term as long as the resistance of 2.452 is held. The daily sentiment is bearish and will continue to be so in the short-term as long as the resistance at 2.256 is held.
Heating Oil
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the Heating Oil Futures. The monthly sentiment remains bearish. The weekly sentiment remains bearish as long as the resistance at 1.6124 is held. The daily sentiment is bearish near a low of 1.2759; it will remain bearish in the short-term as long as the resistance at 1.4288 is held.
Agriculture
Wheat
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the Wheat Futures. The monthly sentiment remains bearish with a support at 460. The weekly sentiment is bearish as long as we hold the resistance at 498. The daily sentiment is bearish, however, we need to hold the 498 level in order to remain bearish in the short-term.
Corn
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the Corn Futures. The monthly sentiment remains bearish with a support at 321. The weekly chart is consolidating in the cloud and needs to get below the 344 level in order for it to be declared bearish. The daily needs to get below the 369 level in order to continue its short-term bearish move.
Sugar
Below are the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the Sugar No. 11 Futures. The monthly sentiment is bearish but needs to get below 12.99 in order to continue the long-term move. The weekly sentiment is now bullish and will need to get below the support at 12.99 as well. The daily sentiment is bullish and will need to get below 14.89 in order for us to look at this bearish in the short-term.
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